International futures : building and using global models
Author
Published
London, United Kingdom : Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier, [2019].
Status
Available Online
Description
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
- Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior
- Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems
- Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
More Details
Format
Edition
First edition.
Language
English
ISBN
9780128134221, 0128134224
Notes
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
Description
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
Local note
O'Reilly O'Reilly Online Learning: Academic/Public Library Edition
Table of Contents
Front Cover
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
Copyright
Contents
Prologue
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1. What Path Are We On?
1.2. What Leverage Do We Have?
1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty?
1.4. The Plan of the Volume
References
Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit
2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems
2.1.1. Identifying Concepts
2.1.2. Recognizing Systems
2.2. Assembling Data
2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions
2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More
2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type
2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level
2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops
2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms
2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level
2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention
2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket
2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers
2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points
2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty
2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios
2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty
2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses
2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation
2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission
References
Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling
3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems
3.1.1. Foundational Work
3.1.2. The First Wave
3.1.3. New Capabilities
3.2. Integrated Assessment Models
3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs.
3.2.2. Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures
3.3. Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use
3.3.1. Challenges in Model Building
3.3.1.1. Coverage and Connections
3.3.1.2. Transparency and Openness
3.3.2. Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty
3.3.2.1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
3.3.2.2. Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives
3.4. Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges
References
Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures
4.1. Structural Overview of IFs
4.2. The User Interface of IFs
4.2.1. Data Analysis
4.2.2. Display of Results
4.2.3. Creation of Scenarios
4.3. Users and Uses of IFs
4.4. Looking Ahead
References
Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development
5.1. Population
5.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
5.1.2. Demographic Transitions
5.1.3. Modeling Population, Especially Fertility
5.1.4. Population in IFs
5.1.4.1. Fertility Rate
5.1.4.2. Mortality and Migration
5.1.4.3. Other Important Demographic Variables
5.1.4.4. Limitations
5.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
5.2. Health
5.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
5.2.2. Health Transitions
5.2.3. Modeling Health, Especially Mortality
5.2.4. Health in IFs
5.2.4.1. A Hybrid Distal and Proximate Modeling Approach
5.2.4.2. The Distal Foundation
5.2.4.3. The Risk Assessment Overlay
5.2.4.4. Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers
5.2.4.5. Other Important Health Variables
5.2.4.6. Limitations
5.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
5.3. Education
5.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
5.3.2. Education Transitions
5.3.3. Modeling Education Progression
5.3.4. Education in IFs
5.3.4.1. Primary Intake
5.3.4.2. Education Financing Reconciliation
5.3.4.3. Other Important Education Variables.
5.3.4.4. Limitations
5.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
5.4. Human Development in Summary
5.5. Conclusion
References
Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development
6.1. Economics
6.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
6.1.1.1. Flow-Based Accounting
6.1.1.2. Economic Growth Dynamics
6.1.2. Economic Transitions
6.1.3. Modeling Economics
6.1.3.1. The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models
6.1.3.2. Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity
6.1.4. Economics in IFs
6.1.4.1. The IFs Approach to Productivity
Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements
Endogenous Productivity Growth
An Example: Human Capital and Productivity
Other Endogenous Productivity Terms
Informality
Physical Energy Shortages
6.1.4.2. Flows and Accounting
Domestic Flows and the Demand Side
External Accounts
6.1.4.3. Equilibration Dynamics
6.1.4.4. Income Distribution and Poverty
6.1.4.5. Limitations
Around the SAM
The LES Approach for Consumer Demand
Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously
Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP
The Representation of Income Distribution
Labor and Financial Markets
6.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
6.2. Government Finance
6.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
6.2.2. Government Finance Transitions
6.2.3. Modeling Government Finance
6.2.4. Government Finance in IFs
6.2.4.1. Government Consumption/Investment
6.2.4.2. Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations
Military Sector
Health Sector
Education Sector
Core Infrastructure Sector
Other Infrastructure Sector
Research and Development (R&D)
Other Public Spending
Exogenous Override
6.2.4.3. Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability
6.2.4.4. Other Government Finance
6.2.4.5. Balancing Revenues and Expenditures.
6.2.4.6. Limitations
6.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
6.3. Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System
6.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
6.3.2. Governance Transitions
6.3.3. Modeling of Governance
6.3.4. Governance in IFs
6.3.4.1. Security and Internal War
6.3.4.2. Other IFs Variables Related to the Three Dimensions
6.3.4.3. A Deeper Look at Culture
6.3.4.4. Limitations
6.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
6.4. International/Global Politics
6.4.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
6.4.2. International Political Transitions
6.4.3. Modeling International Politics
6.4.4. International Politics in IFs
6.4.4.1. Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation
6.4.4.2. Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term
6.4.4.3. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term
6.4.4.4. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term
6.4.4.5. Other Important Variables: Military Spending and Globalization
6.4.4.6. Limitations
6.4.5. Comparative Scenarios
6.5. Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development
7.1. Agriculture and Food
7.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
7.1.2. Agriculture and Food Transitions
7.1.3. Modeling Agriculture and Food
7.1.4. Agriculture and Food in IFs
7.1.4.1. Yield and Production
7.1.4.2. Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration
7.1.4.3. Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture
7.1.4.4. Limitations
7.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
7.2. Energy
7.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
7.2.2. Energy Transitions
7.2.3. Modeling Energy
7.2.4. Energy in IFs
7.2.4.1. Resources and Production
7.2.4.2. Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration
7.2.4.3. Limitations
7.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
7.3. Infrastructure.
7.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
7.3.2. Infrastructure Transitions
7.3.3. Modeling Infrastructure
7.3.4. Infrastructure in IFs
7.3.4.1. Expected Access Rates
7.3.4.2. Other Important Functions
7.3.4.3. Limitations
7.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
7.4. Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note
7.5. Climate Change
7.5.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
7.5.2. Atmospheric Carbon Transition
7.5.3. Modeling Climate Change
7.5.4. The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs
7.5.5. Limitations
7.5.6. Comparative Scenarios
7.6. Water Systems
7.6.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
7.6.2. Water Transitions
7.6.3. Modeling Water Systems
7.6.4. Water in IFs
7.6.5. Limitations
7.6.6. Comparative Scenarios
7.7. Conclusion
References
Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty
8.1. Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change
8.1.1. Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts
8.1.2. Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change
8.1.2.1. Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events)
8.1.2.2. Challenges: Temporal Considerations
8.1.2.3. Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements
8.1.2.4. Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together
8.1.2.5. Aggregated Statistical Representation
8.1.3. Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs
8.1.4. Limitations
8.2. Technology
8.2.1. Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology
8.2.2. Technology in IFs
8.2.3. Limitations
8.3. Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System
9.1. Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties
9.1.1. Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios
9.1.2. Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios.
Reviews from GoodReads
Loading GoodReads Reviews.
Citations
APA Citation, 7th Edition (style guide)
Hughes, B. B. (2019). International futures: building and using global models (First edition.). Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier.
Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)Hughes, Barry B., 1945-. 2019. International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. London, United Kingdom: Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier.
Chicago / Turabian - Humanities (Notes and Bibliography) Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)Hughes, Barry B., 1945-. International Futures: Building and Using Global Models London, United Kingdom: Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier, 2019.
Harvard Citation (style guide)Hughes, B. B. (2019). International futures: building and using global models. First edn. London, United Kingdom: Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier.
MLA Citation, 9th Edition (style guide)Hughes, Barry B. International Futures: Building and Using Global Models First edition., Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier, 2019.
Note! Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy. Citation formats are based on standards as of August 2021.
Staff View
Grouped Work ID
88366aab-46bc-f36b-dfa7-2f11d09d9553-eng
Grouping Information
| Grouped Work ID | 88366aab-46bc-f36b-dfa7-2f11d09d9553-eng |
|---|---|
| Full title | international futures building and using global models |
| Author | hughes barry b |
| Grouping Category | book |
| Last Update | 2025-01-24 12:33:29PM |
| Last Indexed | 2025-05-22 03:26:20AM |
Book Cover Information
| Image Source | syndetics |
|---|---|
| First Loaded | Apr 16, 2023 |
| Last Used | May 9, 2025 |
Marc Record
| First Detected | Mar 21, 2023 12:08:35 PM |
|---|---|
| Last File Modification Time | Mar 21, 2023 12:08:35 PM |
| Suppressed | Record had no items |
MARC Record
| LEADER | 12447cam a2200601 i 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | on1090396924 | ||
| 003 | OCoLC | ||
| 005 | 20230321120745.0 | ||
| 006 | m o d | ||
| 007 | cr cnu|||unuuu | ||
| 008 | 190322t20192019enk ob 001 0 eng d | ||
| 015 | |a GBB951800|2 bnb | ||
| 016 | 7 | |a 019308769|2 Uk | |
| 019 | |a 1090689333|a 1090854452|a 1110606149|a 1125343543|a 1229464007 | ||
| 020 | |a 9780128134221|q (electronic book) | ||
| 020 | |a 0128134224|q (electronic book) | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1090396924|z (OCoLC)1090689333|z (OCoLC)1090854452|z (OCoLC)1110606149|z (OCoLC)1125343543|z (OCoLC)1229464007 | ||
| 037 | |a 9780128134221|b Ingram Content Group | ||
| 040 | |a N$T|b eng|e rda|e pn|c N$T|d N$T|d OPELS|d YDX|d UKMGB|d UKAHL|d CUT|d OCLCF|d S2H|d OCLCO|d OCLCQ|d UWO|d DCT|d ERF|d BRX|d UMI|d LVT|d LOA|d OCLCO|d OCLCQ | ||
| 049 | |a MAIN | ||
| 050 | 4 | |a H61.4 | |
| 072 | 7 | |a SCI|x 064000|2 bisacsh | |
| 072 | 7 | |a TEC|x 029000|2 bisacsh | |
| 082 | 0 | 4 | |a 003.2|2 23 |
| 100 | 1 | |a Hughes, Barry B.,|d 1945-|e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a International futures :|b building and using global models /|c Barry B. Hughes. |
| 250 | |a First edition. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a London, United Kingdom :|b Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier,|c [2019] | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2019 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource | ||
| 336 | |a text|b txt|2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer|b c|2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource|b cr|2 rdacarrier | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and indexes. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Front Cover -- International Futures: Building and Using Global Models -- Copyright -- Contents -- Prologue -- Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases -- Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1. What Path Are We On? -- 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have? -- 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty? -- 1.4. The Plan of the Volume -- References -- Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit -- 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems -- 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts -- 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems -- 2.2. Assembling Data -- 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions -- 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More -- 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type -- 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level -- 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops -- 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms -- 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level -- 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention -- 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket -- 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers -- 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points -- 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty -- 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios -- 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty -- 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses -- 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation -- 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission -- References -- Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling -- 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems -- 3.1.1. Foundational Work -- 3.1.2. The First Wave -- 3.1.3. New Capabilities -- 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models -- 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.2.2. Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures -- 3.3. Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use -- 3.3.1. Challenges in Model Building -- 3.3.1.1. Coverage and Connections -- 3.3.1.2. Transparency and Openness -- 3.3.2. Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty -- 3.3.2.1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) -- 3.3.2.2. Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives -- 3.4. Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges -- References -- Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures -- 4.1. Structural Overview of IFs -- 4.2. The User Interface of IFs -- 4.2.1. Data Analysis -- 4.2.2. Display of Results -- 4.2.3. Creation of Scenarios -- 4.3. Users and Uses of IFs -- 4.4. Looking Ahead -- References -- Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development -- 5.1. Population -- 5.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.1.2. Demographic Transitions -- 5.1.3. Modeling Population, Especially Fertility -- 5.1.4. Population in IFs -- 5.1.4.1. Fertility Rate -- 5.1.4.2. Mortality and Migration -- 5.1.4.3. Other Important Demographic Variables -- 5.1.4.4. Limitations -- 5.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.2. Health -- 5.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.2.2. Health Transitions -- 5.2.3. Modeling Health, Especially Mortality -- 5.2.4. Health in IFs -- 5.2.4.1. A Hybrid Distal and Proximate Modeling Approach -- 5.2.4.2. The Distal Foundation -- 5.2.4.3. The Risk Assessment Overlay -- 5.2.4.4. Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers -- 5.2.4.5. Other Important Health Variables -- 5.2.4.6. Limitations -- 5.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.3. Education -- 5.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.3.2. Education Transitions -- 5.3.3. Modeling Education Progression -- 5.3.4. Education in IFs -- 5.3.4.1. Primary Intake -- 5.3.4.2. Education Financing Reconciliation -- 5.3.4.3. Other Important Education Variables. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 5.3.4.4. Limitations -- 5.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.4. Human Development in Summary -- 5.5. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development -- 6.1. Economics -- 6.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.1.1.1. Flow-Based Accounting -- 6.1.1.2. Economic Growth Dynamics -- 6.1.2. Economic Transitions -- 6.1.3. Modeling Economics -- 6.1.3.1. The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models -- 6.1.3.2. Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity -- 6.1.4. Economics in IFs -- 6.1.4.1. The IFs Approach to Productivity -- Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements -- Endogenous Productivity Growth -- An Example: Human Capital and Productivity -- Other Endogenous Productivity Terms -- Informality -- Physical Energy Shortages -- 6.1.4.2. Flows and Accounting -- Domestic Flows and the Demand Side -- External Accounts -- 6.1.4.3. Equilibration Dynamics -- 6.1.4.4. Income Distribution and Poverty -- 6.1.4.5. Limitations -- Around the SAM -- The LES Approach for Consumer Demand -- Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously -- Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP -- The Representation of Income Distribution -- Labor and Financial Markets -- 6.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.2. Government Finance -- 6.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.2.2. Government Finance Transitions -- 6.2.3. Modeling Government Finance -- 6.2.4. Government Finance in IFs -- 6.2.4.1. Government Consumption/Investment -- 6.2.4.2. Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations -- Military Sector -- Health Sector -- Education Sector -- Core Infrastructure Sector -- Other Infrastructure Sector -- Research and Development (R&D) -- Other Public Spending -- Exogenous Override -- 6.2.4.3. Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability -- 6.2.4.4. Other Government Finance -- 6.2.4.5. Balancing Revenues and Expenditures. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 6.2.4.6. Limitations -- 6.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.3. Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System -- 6.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.3.2. Governance Transitions -- 6.3.3. Modeling of Governance -- 6.3.4. Governance in IFs -- 6.3.4.1. Security and Internal War -- 6.3.4.2. Other IFs Variables Related to the Three Dimensions -- 6.3.4.3. A Deeper Look at Culture -- 6.3.4.4. Limitations -- 6.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.4. International/Global Politics -- 6.4.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.4.2. International Political Transitions -- 6.4.3. Modeling International Politics -- 6.4.4. International Politics in IFs -- 6.4.4.1. Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation -- 6.4.4.2. Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term -- 6.4.4.3. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term -- 6.4.4.4. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term -- 6.4.4.5. Other Important Variables: Military Spending and Globalization -- 6.4.4.6. Limitations -- 6.4.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.5. Conclusion -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development -- 7.1. Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.1.2. Agriculture and Food Transitions -- 7.1.3. Modeling Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.4. Agriculture and Food in IFs -- 7.1.4.1. Yield and Production -- 7.1.4.2. Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration -- 7.1.4.3. Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture -- 7.1.4.4. Limitations -- 7.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.2. Energy -- 7.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.2.2. Energy Transitions -- 7.2.3. Modeling Energy -- 7.2.4. Energy in IFs -- 7.2.4.1. Resources and Production -- 7.2.4.2. Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration -- 7.2.4.3. Limitations -- 7.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.3. Infrastructure. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 7.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.3.2. Infrastructure Transitions -- 7.3.3. Modeling Infrastructure -- 7.3.4. Infrastructure in IFs -- 7.3.4.1. Expected Access Rates -- 7.3.4.2. Other Important Functions -- 7.3.4.3. Limitations -- 7.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.4. Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note -- 7.5. Climate Change -- 7.5.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.5.2. Atmospheric Carbon Transition -- 7.5.3. Modeling Climate Change -- 7.5.4. The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs -- 7.5.5. Limitations -- 7.5.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.6. Water Systems -- 7.6.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.6.2. Water Transitions -- 7.6.3. Modeling Water Systems -- 7.6.4. Water in IFs -- 7.6.5. Limitations -- 7.6.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.7. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty -- 8.1. Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change -- 8.1.1. Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts -- 8.1.2. Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change -- 8.1.2.1. Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events) -- 8.1.2.2. Challenges: Temporal Considerations -- 8.1.2.3. Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements -- 8.1.2.4. Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together -- 8.1.2.5. Aggregated Statistical Representation -- 8.1.3. Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs -- 8.1.4. Limitations -- 8.2. Technology -- 8.2.1. Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology -- 8.2.2. Technology in IFs -- 8.2.3. Limitations -- 8.3. Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System -- 9.1. Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties -- 9.1.1. Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios -- 9.1.2. Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios. | |
| 520 | |a International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Vendor-supplied metadata. | |
| 590 | |a O'Reilly|b O'Reilly Online Learning: Academic/Public Library Edition | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Forecasting.|9 39238 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Policy sciences.|9 51562 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Forecasting|x Mathematical models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Forecasting|x Data processing. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version:|a Hughes, Barry B.|t International Futures.|d London, Academic Press, 2019|z 0128042710|w (OCoLC)1065735821 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://library.access.arlingtonva.us/login?url=https://learning.oreilly.com/library/view/~/9780128134221/?ar|x O'Reilly|z eBook |
| 938 | |a Askews and Holts Library Services|b ASKH|n AH34353316 | ||
| 938 | |a EBSCOhost|b EBSC|n 1892173 | ||
| 938 | |a YBP Library Services|b YANK|n 16125745 | ||
| 994 | |a 92|b VIA | ||
| 999 | |c 288136|d 288136 | ||