Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know?
(Book)

Book Cover
Average Rating
Published
Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2017.
Status
Aurora Hills - Adult Nonfiction
320.6 TETLO 2017
Copies
Location
Call Number
Status
Aurora Hills - Adult Nonfiction
320.6 TETLO 2017
Available
Description
Loading Description...
More Details
Format
Book
Edition
New edition.
Physical Desc
xliv, 321 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Language
English
ISBN
0691175977, 9780691175973
UPC
99978864558

Notes

Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Awards
2006 Robert E. Lane Award
Also in this Series
More Like This
Reviews from GoodReads
Loading GoodReads Reviews.
Citations
APA Citation (style guide)

Tetlock, P. E. 1. (2017). Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know? New edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-. 2017. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Humanities Citation (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017.

MLA Citation (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017. Print.

Note! Citation formats are based on standards as of July 2010. Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy.
Staff View
Loading Staff View.