An irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.

"An introduction to Bayesian statistics with simple and pop culture-based explanations. Topics covered include measuring your own uncertainty in a belief, applying Bayes' theorem, and calculating distributions"--

We would like to believe we can know things for certain. We want to be able to figure out who will win an election, if the stock market will crash, or if a suspect definitely committed a crime. But the odds are not in our favor. Life is full of uncertainty --- indeed, scientific advances indicate that the universe might be fundamentally inexact --- and humans are terrible at guessing. When asked to predict the outcome of a chance event, we are almost...

"A compilation of everyday events analyzed for their probability of occurring. The odds are determined using mathematical equations and science. An entertaining illustrated reference to the role of mathematics in everyday life. Topics examined are: the human condition, sports and games, traveling from A to B, digital technology, chance and coincidence, and more."--

"A new approach to uderstanding the ever-changing information that bombards us. Arbesman is an expert in scientometrics, literally the science of science--how we know what we know. It turns out that knowledge in most fields evolves in systematic and predictable ways, and understanding that evolution can enormously powerful"--

Lisa and her class learn about probability.

"On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing...

"Why do kids born in the summer get diagnosed more often with A.D.H.D.? How are marathons harmful for your health, even when you're not running? What do surgeons and salesmen have in common? Which annual event made people 30 percent more likely to contract COVID-19? As a University of Chicago-trained economist and Harvard medical school professor and doctor, Anupam Jena is uniquely equipped to answer these questions. And as a critical care doctor...

In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the...