Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.

Why do smart people make irrational decisions every day? The answers will surprise you. This book is a look at why we all make illogical decisions. Why can a 50-cent aspirin do what a penny aspirin can't? If an item is "free" it must be a bargain, right? Why is everything relative, even when it shouldn't be? How do our expectations influence our actual opinions and decisions? In this book, the author, a behavioral economist cuts to the heart of our...

"'Magical thinking' can be broadly defined as the belief that one's internal thoughts can affect unrelated events in the external world: Think of the conviction that one can manifest their way out of poverty, stave off cancer with positive vibes, thwart the apocalypse by learning to can their own peaches, or transform an unhealthy relationship to a glorious one with loyalty alone. In all its forms, magical thinking works in service of restoring agency...

Private employers and public agencies use various mechanical aptitude tests to screen applicants for jobs that range from mechanics and skilled trades apprentices to aerospace engineers and firefighters. These tests often differ in detail but measure similar abilities. This manual presents 18 typical tests that gauge an individual's mechanical aptitude and spatial ability, with all questions answered and explained. The author also advises on ways...